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30 Years of Simulation
Industries
Paper (Chemical/Process)
Nuclear (Power Generation)
Metals (Steel, Non-Ferrous)
HVAC (Building Control)
Insurance, Banking, Legal
Security, Inspections
Passenger Processing
Medical Facilities
Evacuations
Area Control
Threat Response
Logistics, Supply
Maintenance and Reliability
Staff Level Determination
Fleet Management
What examples of simulations can you think of?
3 Major Classes of Simulation
Analog : Executed without digital computers
Mechanical : employs mechanical linkages and calculations
Electrical : instantiated in electrical circuits
Hybrid : combination of the above
Continuous : Based on differential equations
Discrete-Event : Processes events at arbitrary intervals in time order
Hybrid : Combinations of the above
Analog Simulation: Mechanical
Link Pilot Training Simulator
Analog Simulation: Electrical
System Type
Through Variable
Across Variable
Energy Storage 1
Energy Storage 2
Energy Dissipation
Electrical
Current (I)
Voltage (V)
Capacitor (C)
Inductor (L)
Resistor (R)
Mechanical (Linear)
Force (F)
Velocity (u)
Spring (K)
Mass (M)
Damper (B)
Mechanical (Rotational)
Torque (T)
Angular Velocity (w )
Torsion Spring (K)
Moment of Inertia (I)
Rotary Damper
Hydraulic
Volume Flow
Pressure (P)
Tank
Mass
Valve
Analog Simulation: Electrical (continued)
Analog Simulation: Hybrid
30 Years of Simulation
Applications
Design and Sizing
Security, Event Planning
Operations Research
Real-Time Control
Operator Training
Risk Analysis
Economic Analysis
Impact Analysis
Process Improvement (BPR)
Architectural Considerations
Continuous vs. Discrete-Event
Interactive vs. Fire-and-Forget
Real-Time vs. Non-Real-Time
Single-Platform vs. Distributed
Deterministic vs. Stochastic
Architecture: Continuous vs. Discrete-Event
Continuous simulation of the heating of a square billet and Discrete-Event simulation of a multi-phase process.
Continuous Simulation
Architecture: Interactive vs. Fire-and-Forget
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Architecture: Interactive vs. Fire-and-Forget
Animation
Architecture: Real-time vs. Non-Real-Time
Architecture: Single-Platform vs. Distributed
Architecture: Deterministic vs. Stochastic
Monte Carlo Analysis "It was smooth sailing!" vs. "I hit every stinkin' red light today!"
Involves running multiple trials of complex models including combinations of numerous randomly generated outcomes that yield a range of complex results.
Models may incorporate scheduled and unscheduled elements.
Randomly generated outcomes may include:
event durations
process outcomes
routing choice
event occurrence (e.g., failure, arrival; Poisson function)
arrival characteristic (anything that affects outcomes)
resource availability
environmental conditions
Random values may be obtained by applying methods singly and in combination, which can result in symmetrical or asymmetrical results:
single- and multi-dice combinations
range-defined buckets
piecewise linear curve fits
statistical and empirical functions
rule-based conditioning of results
Model-Predictive Control
Model-Predictive Control (continued)
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Other Contexts for Simulation
Process Automation is an example of simulating activities that used to be done by humans.
Resources Required for Simulation
Computing power
Memory (dynamic and static)
Obtainable input data
Valid behavioral data
Choosing the right level of granularity
Outputs in actionable form
The Limits of Simulation
If you were going to simulate an atom, what would you have to include?
What would it take to do it?
The Limits of Simulation (continued)
What if you tried to simulate the entire Universe?
The Limits of Simulation (continued)
Planck Length - Accelerando
The Universe can only be an analog simulation of itself -- from our point of view. (Other people may know better, but that's my take on it!)
Discovery, Data Collection, and Domain Knowledge
Discovery is a qualitative process. It identifies nouns (things) and verbs (actions, transformations, decisions, calculations).
Data Collection is a quantitative process. It identifies adjectives (colors, dimensions, rates, times, volumes, capacities, materials, properties).
Discovery comes first, so you know what data you need to collect.
Imagine you're going to simulate or automate the process. What values do you need? This is the information the implementation teams will need.
Domain Knowledge Acquisition is learning about the subject you're simulating, typically from SMEs.
Process Mapping
Describes what comes in, where it goes, how it's transformed, and what comes out.
Describes the movement and storage of information, material, people, and other entities.
Maps define the scope of a process. Links to connected processes or "everything else" are called interfaces.
Are presented at the level of detail that makes sense.
Process elements within maps can themselves be processes with their own maps.
State, timing, and other data can be included.
Entities in a process can be split and combined.
Processes and entities may be continuous or discrete.
Process Mapping (continued)
Processes may be mapped differently based on needs, industry standards, and the information to be represented.
Mechanical Pulping Mill, Quebec City, QC
Offgas System in BWR Nuclear Power Plant, Richland, WA
Land Border Port of Entry, Columbus, NM
Architecture Study: General Purpose Discrete-Event Simulation
Process Mapping (continued)
S-I-P-O-C vs. C-O-P-I-S
Any number of inputs and outputs are possible.
Process Mapping (continued)
I give specific names to modular components.
Building A Simulation (continued)
Now that you've determined what you're going to simulate, how do you finish the job?
Design
Implementation
Testing (Verification and Validation)
Acceptance